Italy will hold a referendum on reforms to the justice system on 22–23 March. Marino De Luca writes that behind the appearance of a united front among centre-right parties, there are significant divisions in institutional trust among centre-right citizens.
On 22–23 March, voters in Italy will go to the polls for a key referendum on how the country’s justice system is organised. The proposal – known as the Nordio reform – would separate the careers of judges and public prosecutors, establish two Higher Councils of the Judiciary chosen by lot, and create a new court to deal with disciplinary matters.
At the institutional level, this is an important vote. However, at the political level it has developed into something more: a test of whether individuals are aligned with the government or stand in opposition to it. This has created a polarised campaign in which the centre right appears to broadly support the reform while the centre left largely opposes it. Yet behind this apparently simple division, the picture is more complex.
How united is the Italian right?
The cohesiveness of politicians in political blocs does not necessarily coincide with cohesiveness among their supporters. One of the most important factors in this context is political trust. Research suggests radical right parties can erode trust in political and legal institutions. Low levels of political trust can also distance citizens from mainstream politics, while trust in parties can help people make political choices more easily.
Trust in European judicial systems depends not only on general political orientations but also on characteristics such as the independence and accountability of each institution. Since the Berlusconi era, the relationship with the judiciary in Italy has been marked by strong polarisation within the centre right and by the relationship between politics, justice and media representation more broadly.
From this perspective, the Italian referendum is not only a vote on a justice reform but also an opportunity to ask how trust in different institutions is distributed within the centre right. This was the topic of a survey I conducted with colleagues in Italy in December 2025.
We found that among citizens who place themselves on the centre right, 54% report voting for centre-right parties (Fratelli d’Italia, Lega and Forza Italia), while the remainder report voting for other parties (26.3%) or abstaining (19.7%). This already suggests that behind the image of a bloc, there is space for dispersion. Differences can indeed be seen in the average levels of trust voters have in the three branches of power (legislative, executive and judicial), as shown in the Table.
Table: Average trust in institutions among those who place themselves on the centre right in Italy
Note: The survey used a 1-10 scale where 1 indicated “no trust” and 10 indicated “full trust”.
The table suggests that trust in Italian institutions varies among people who see themselves as centre right. These voters usually trust the government, but people who support other parties tend to have more trust in the judiciary. Abstainers display lower levels of trust in all three institutions. This is an initial descriptive snapshot, but it is sufficient to call into question the idea of unity on the right.
The point is not that dispersion exists, but rather what structures it. The relationship between citizens and institutions is an important element that risks being overlooked due to the apparent polarisation in the referendum campaign. Party messaging from centre-right parties is relatively cohesive, but cohesiveness among centre-right parties does not mean there is a uniform relationship between centre-right voters and Italian institutions.
One of the things that makes this referendum truly interesting is that it touches precisely on the boundary between the institutions of political representation and those of justice. Distrust may encourage people to abstain from voting, but it could also lead to a reallocation of votes. The dynamic for each institution may also differ.
From this perspective, the referendum promises to give a window into the different ways of looking at politics and justice that exist among voters on the right. On the eve of the vote, the right may well appear united, but it is possible this cohesion is more superficial than we think.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of LSE European Politics or the London School of Economics. The project this article is based on has received funding from the Italian Ministry of University and Research under the European Union — Next Generation EU framework, PNRR Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.2, for the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Grant for Young Researchers (‘Debunking’).
Image credit: Marco Iacobucci Epp provided by Shutterstock.
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