Cats’ call on big fish; rising contender’s delicate balancing act — AFL Trade Talking Points

The 2025 AFL season is over. But the trade and free agency period is just getting started.

And we could be set for a mega exchange window with several big names potentially on the move.

It all kicks off with the opening of free agency this Friday, October 3, which runs until the following Friday, October 10.

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The trade period gets underway next Monday, October 6, and finished on Wednesday October, 15.

Below we run through all the big storylines to watch and talking points this trade and free agency period.

Plus ask your questions in our live trade chat from 1pm-2.30pm AEDT!

BIG THREE WATCH

It’s rare to have one genuine superstar on the trade table. This year we could have three.

The futures of Carlton’s Charlie Curnow, Essendon’s Zach Merrett and Melbourne’s Christian Petracca headline the trade period as the trio look to get out of their respective clubs.

Imagine if Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and/or Matt Rowell had wanted out too!?

But complicating matters is that all three of Curnow, Merrett and Petracca are contracted on lucrative deals.

What do contracts matter anymore, right?

It will make for some seriously fascinating conversations over the coming weeks you sense will go right down to the wire.

Curnow is keen on a fresh start away from Carlton and drawing interest from Geelong, Gold Coast and Sydney.

The Cats are believed to be his preferred home, but they have the least trade collateral, while the Swans seen as the most eager.

But the Blues will want to be bowled over with an offer they can’t refuse.

The Merrett situation appears to have simmered down from where it was a few weeks ago.

The Bombers skipper is eyeing a move to Hawthorn, but new Essendon president Andrew Welsh has been adamant Merrett won’t be going anywhere.

Could it get ugly again? The trade negations themselves have the potential to, with Essendon wanting more than Pick 8.

Over to you, Tom Petroro (Merrett’s manager).

Then there’s Petracca. Twelve months on from him exploring a trade away from Melbourne, things seem more amicable now.

The Demons are reportedly happy to facilitate a move for the right price, but Petracca could also walk back into the club if nothing eventuates in a new era under Steven King (more on him later).

Unlike last year, Petracca is open to joining non-Victorian clubs, with Adelaide and Gold Coast circling.

DO THE SUNS GO FOR IT?

They’ve grown the you know what up.

Gold Coast arrived in 2025 and has emerged as a destination club for the first time in their existence, plus the retention of Brownlow winner Matt Rowell was telling.

Now among the suitors for both Curnow and Petracca, the Suns mean business. There’s a fair bit on list boss Craig Cameron’s plate as the club looks to build off its first finals campaign.

Jamie Elliott is in their sights, which would give them a needed small forward upgrade. The Suns are also a potential suitor for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.

Meanwhile, Sam Flanders and Malcolm Rosas are set to depart and Connor Budarick and Brayden Fiorini are weighing up their futures.

And the Suns crucially need draft points for academy draftees including Zeke Uwland, Dylan Patterson, Jai Murray, Koby Coulson and Beau Addinsall, despite already holding three first-rounders.

The bigger picture question hovering over Gold Coast is how much does the club back in what it has and internal development getting it to the next level. Or does it get aggressive in loading up around its emerging core?

The Curnow situation is a microcosm of this discourse.

Foxfooty.com.au reported the Suns’ reluctance to move their gun forwards including Jed Walter in a potential Curnow deal could cast doubt around their capacity to land the dual Coleman medallist.

That would suggest the club wants keep all its young cornerstones. But there would surely be a temptation to go for it with big names wanting to join the club for the first tine ever.

Damien Hardwick sensationally said when he first arrived at the Suns at the end of 2023 they had 80 per cent of their premiership list already intact.

You can’t help but wonder what the three-time premiership coach thinks that number is now.

CATS TO DECIDE ON BIG FISH

Charlie Curnow or Rowan Marshall?

The Cats need to quickly move past the grand final and work out which trade target makes more sense for them moving forward.

Surely they can’t get both (with more flexibility than ever to trade picks two years in advance) …

While Curnow might seem like the no-brainer answer, consider that the Blues will want the world for the dual Coleman medallist.

Reports have indicated Carlton wouldn’t accept an offer of Pick 17 and Shannon Neale and clearly want to be blown away with a mega offer.

Therefore Marshall might make more sese to prioritise.

Yes, the gun ruckman is contracted to the Saints and they wouldn’t give him away easy.

But a first-round pick should get the deal done and Marshall probably fits a need more than Curnow, with Rhys Stanley’s future unclear and Mark Blicavs, 34, in his twilight years.

Meanwhile the Cats already have Jeremy Cameron and Neale spearheading there forward line, even if the grand final might give them some thinking.

Cooler heads will prevail in due time and only Geelong, already set to land James Worpel in free agency, will know the best course of action.

“If they get Rowan Marshall, look out,” Cats legend Cameron Mooney told foxfooty.com.au ahead of last week’s grand final.

“But I hope they wouldn’t lose Shannon Neale to get Charlie Curnow, that would be my only thing. We’ve seen in finals three tall forwards don’t work.

“Charlie obviously has family and business things down that way. But who would know.”

AGGRESSIVE OFF-SEASON AT MOORABIN BEGINS

Speaking of Marshall, there’s a bit happening at Moorabbin.

Fair to say the phones of club list bosses Stephen Silvagni and Graeme Allen will be getting a work out.

The Saints are set to be one of, if not the, busiest clubs this off-season, having seemingly been linked to every trade and free agency target under the sun.

They’re already set to land Tom De Koning and Jack Sinclair in free agency and Liam Ryan and Leek Aleer have requested trades to the club.

Sam Flanders could be set to follow amid reports of a $4.5 million offer over five years from St Kilda.

Then there’s the Marshall situation as the ruckman contemplates a move to the Cats

Meanwhile Callum Wilkie’s future isn’t completely settled yet either.

The Western Bulldogs are circling with an ambitious multimillion-dollar bid to try lure the All-Australian. A move seems unlikely, for St Kilda could simply say no, but it remains one to watch.

And will there be any suitors for Jack Steele? He wouldn’t be the only club captain on the move.

It goes without saying, but the Saints already sorted their most important piece of business by locking away Nasiah-Wanganeen Milera on a two-year extension.

It does, however, put them on the clock over the next two years to make genuine inroads.

KING TAKES THE REINS AT MELBOURNE

New Melbourne coach Steven King is stepping into the top job at the crucial time (feels like we’ve been saying that a fair bit in recent years).

King isn’t the list manager and won’t be as involved in the cut and thrust of the wheeling and dealing as Tim Lamb.

But the new Demons boss will still have a key say on trade period and direction at large ahead of an important off-season and his first at the club with a fair bit on the plate.

Clearly, that’s headlined by what happens with Christian Petracca.

While it still makes more sense to retain the four-time All-Australian, maybe now is the perfect time to extract trade value for the midfielder, who turns 30 in January.

You could probably get a first-round pick and second rounder, as Adelaide and Gold Coast circle.

And it could also really force King to rebrand a midfield that’s constantly gone back to the same old Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney combination in recent years under Simon Goodwin that became stale.

Who’s to say King wouldn’t do the same if the going got tough?

Beyond Petracca, Judd McVee has asked to be traded to Fremantle and Steven May has been encouraged to explore his options with a year to run on the veteran defender’s contract.

Melbourne is also pursuing Gold Coast’s Sam Flanders, Collingwood’s Brody Mihocek, GWS’ Wade Derksen and St Kilda’s Max Heath.

SECRET HERBS AND SPICES

Ah yes, the AFL’s secret herbs and spices.

No one really knows exactly what determines the compensation pick for a free agent’s departure.

It’s based on the on the length, value and age of the player in a formula that spits out a band tied to the ladder position of the club losing the player.

It’ll again be a key focus over the next fortnight with some key free agents on the move.

That includes Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Oscar Allen and Sam Draper already declaring their plans, with Allen and Draper set to further power up back-to-back premiers Brisbane.

Allen’s departure from West Coast could net the 18th-placed club the No. 2 pick.

But that may be diluted by Brandon Starcevich’s looming free agency call, provided the gun Lion’s latest setback doesn’t throw in a spanner in the works.