So you want to get involved in the Melbourne Cup but you don’t know anything about it. We’re not sure how that’s possible if you live in Australia, but sure, let’s go with it.
Well, while you’re enjoying The Race That Stops The Nation and maybe even a public holiday depending on where you live, you may be interested in having a flutter on it.
If you’re going to bet, do so responsibly; and here’s how you’d do it.
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WHAT IS THE MELBOURNE CUP?
It’s a horse race, that includes 24 horses (although sometimes fewer if they are withdrawn, aka ‘scratched’ – that’s not usually literal) trying to be the fastest around a 3200-metre trip of Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne’s inner northwest.
If they are the fastest, they earn $4.5 million for their owner, trainer and jockey. The horse does not get the money as horses have no need to barter for goods and services.
Each horse has odds based on how likely the betting public and bookmakers believe they are to win. The horse viewed as most likely to win has the smallest odds; ie if you bet a dollar, you might only get a few back, rather than a couple of hundred.
It happens at 3pm on the first Tuesday in November – this year, that’s November 4.
ULTIMATE MELBOURNE CUP FORM GUIDE: Verdict on every runner and predicted top 4
HOW DO I BET?
First, you need to pick your horse.
There are a couple of tried-and-true methods. One is to have a mate who follows horse racing; then you can blame them when their pick loses.
Another is to look at the colours and names and pick your favourites. Maybe your horse’s jockey will look like he’s playing for your footy team, or you’re a fan of their weird and wacky names.
Or you could try and analyse the form guide – you know, that confusing bit with all of the tiny writing in the middle of the paper? No, not the real estate listings. Or the classifieds. The other part.
There’ll be plenty of information in there about how the horses have gone recently. It might not make sense to you though, so you might just want to look at the column with the odds and find the smallest number.
Once you’ve picked your horse, you need to place your bet.
They have the internet on computers now, and even telephones, so you can sign up to a betting website and put some money on that way from the safety of your living room.
You can also take the traditional morning trip to the local betting house.
Once you get there – and you’ll want to get there early – you can ask one of the operators there to help you out or fill out one of the cards. They’ll have Melbourne Cup-specific ones which make it nice and simple.
You can also place bets in person at the track though to be honest, if you’re literally at the Melbourne Cup, you probably don’t need us to explain what the Melbourne Cup is.
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WHAT KINDS OF BETS ARE THERE?
The simplest bet is a win bet. In those, you only make money if your horse comes first.
You can also bet on a horse to ‘place’ – that means if they finish in the top three, you win, but at less lucrative odds than with the win bet.
Then you can get exotic. There are quinellas (first two in any order), exactas (first two in order), trifectas (first three in any order) and first fours (first … you can probably guess this one).
For example in 2019, the dividends for those bet types were as follows: The quinella paid $82.40, the exacta paid $175, the trifecta paid $2,953.40 and the first four paid $79,381.40.
Of course, those numbers also reflect how difficult it is to tip them, so don’t expect to just randomly win $80k.
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SO… GOT A TIP FOR WHO’LL WIN?
Nope, but our experts do, or you can go off historical patterns.
No.4 has won the most times with 13 — that’s Vauban this year. Barriers 5 and 11 have won eight times each, which might be a good omen for Chevalier Rose and Smokin’ Romans.
Or you could decide to base your pick around a horse’s jockey and the weight they’ll be carrying (heavier = slower, that’s just physics).
The latter is important because it’s a handicap race; the horses seen to be in the best form are given extra weight to punish them.
The average weight of a winner is around 54kg so you probably want a horse roughly a third of the way down the list?
The current favourites are Half Yours ($6), Valiant King ($7.50) and Presage Nocturne ($8)
But there’s one really important factor to keep in mind – the favourite doesn’t always win. It actually hasn’t happened since 2013, and the favourite has only finished on the podium four times since 2006.
The last two favourites finished 9th and 14th respectively, and the average odds of the winner this century are $19. So feel free to pick a dark horse! (Literally or figurately, we suppose.)
1 AL RIFFA (19) – Joseph O’Brien Mark Zahra 59kg
2 BUCKAROO (12) – Chris Waller Craig Williams 57kg
3 ARAPAHO (15) – Bjorn Baker Rachel King 56.5kg
4 VAUBAN (2) – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Blake Shinn 56.5kg
5 CHEVALIER ROSE (5) – Hisashi Shimizu Damian Lane 55.5kg
6 PRESAGE NOCTURNE (9) – Alessandro Botti Stephane Pasquier 55.5kg
7 MIDDLE EARTH (13) – Ciaron Maher Ethan Brown 54.5kg
8 MEYDAAN (22) – Simon & Ed Crisford James McDonald 54kg
9 ABSURDE (4) – Willie Mullins Kerrin McEvoy 53.5kg
10 FLATTEN THE CURVE (17) – Henk Grewe Thore-Hammer Hansen 53kg
11 LAND LEGEND (16) – Chris Waller Joao Moreira 53.5kg
12 SMOKIN’ ROMANS (11) – Ciaron Maher Ben Melham 53.5kg
13 CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD – Kris Lees Tim Clark 53kg
14 HALF YOURS (8) – Tony & Calvin McEvoy Jamie Melham 53kg
15 MORE FELONS (23) – Chris Waller Tommy Berry 53kg
16 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (6) – Brian Ellison Harry Coffey 53kg
17 FURTHUR (7) – Andrew Balding Michael Dee 52kg
18 PARCHMENT PARTY (3) – William Mott John Velazquez 52kg
19 ATHABASCAN (1) John O’Shea & Tom Charlton Declan Bates 51.5kg
20 GOODIE TWO SHOES (20) – Joseph O’Brien Wayne Lordan 51.5kg
21 RIVER OF STARS (14)- Chris Waller Beau Mertens 51.5kg
22 ROYAL SUPREMACY (21) – Ciaron Maher Robbie Dolan 51kg
23 TORRANZINO (18) – Paul Preusker Celine Gaudray 51kg
24 VALIANT KING (10) – Chris Waller Jye McNeil 51kg
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