Pies tipped for ‘big rise’ after trade coup… but a ‘scary’ reality could have drastic ramifications

Was the 2024 season a weird outlier for Collingwood? Or was it in fact the beginning of a decline for this ageing group?

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The Magpies enter 2025 under big expectations after bolstering their list with Dan Houston, Harry Perryman and Tim Membrey, consolidating the most experienced side in the competition but again neglecting the draft in the process.

They’re very much all in for the now and trying to win a second flag in three years despite sliding down the ladder last year as reigning premiers.

It was a season wrecked by injury and a lack of continuity to the side, but the Pies also had bad lapses that proved costly.

Both premiers before them — Geelong (2022) and Richmond (2021) also missed finals the following year, and have gone in opposite directions since.

As Collingwood looks to bounce back from that downturn, history suggests there’s always one club that climbs from outside the finals into the top four.

And former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon is picking that team to be the Pies.

“They’ve had some pretty good additions this off-season. I’ve got them playing off in the Grand Final, so that’s a big rise when you think about it … I reckon they’re the bolter,” he told foxfooty.com.au.

“Like any good team, sides figure you out — so you’ve got to find a way through, and I think they’re innovative enough as a team. Injuries hurt them last year at critical times, and because the previous year they went on such a big run when winning close games, last year didn’t fall that way.

“But I think the learnings from that, with the maturity they got at their top end is pretty damaging.”

Indeed, the top end is high quality, but it’s also getting on. Collingwood now has 10 players on its list aged 30 plus — with a further two players to turn 30 during the season.

It comes as Collingwood retained all its veterans that were out of contract last season, re-signing champion trio Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe and Steele Sidebottom plus Will Hoskin-Elliott.

That’s been questioned given the gulf of young talent coming through on the Pies list outside of Nick Daicos.

It was a delicate balancing act given the standing of some of those champions nearing retirement as well as their importance to the team.

Pendlebury is Pendlebury and he’ll play for as long as he wants. The 37-year old is ageing like a fine wine, and on his day, can still be Collingwood’s best player.

Sidebottom showed signs of decline early last year before a strong second half of the season, at times being effectively used as a tagger in a turnaround that really commanded a new deal for the 34-year old. There’s a chance Sidebottom will spend time in the VFL this year if others go past him.

Meanwhile, Howe, 34, is still simply too important to the Pies’ back six until they can replenish their key defensive stocks, especially following Nathan Murphy’s medical retirement and the club missing out on recruiting Tom Doedee and Mark Keane.

Still, Collingwood wouldn’t want to lose too many of their veterans at once.

Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe and Hoskin-Elliott are all among several elder statesmen again out of contract this year as well as the likes of Brody Mihocek, Jamie Elliott, (both 32), Mason Cox (33), and Tom Mitchell (31).

It’s worth highlighting that Houston, 27, and Perryman, 26, can help bridge the gap between the current era and the next as known quantities without the need to take a punt on draftees or younger players on the list already that mightn’t work out.

But what can’t be denied is how much Collingwood is again pinning its premiership hopes on several players in the twilight of their careers.

Geelong legend Cameron Mooney warned of the risks that come with that.

“Kevin Bartlett used to say this to me: ‘When you’re old you can play, then the next day you wake up and you can’t.’ That’s how quickly it comes,” Mooney told foxfooty.com.au.

“They’ve got a handful of guys that could wake up tomorrow and can’t play anymore, that’s the scary thing for them. I still think they’re some of their most important players.

“If those guys can get through a whole season and be fit, I’ve got no problems saying Collingwood will be right up there to win it, I loved what they’ve done in the off-season. Perryman is an absolute A-grader as a human and a really good player, Houston is an A-grade footballer and Membrey is another really good marking option for them.

“I like the inclusions, if the old boys stay fit, I think they’re going to give it a really good crack.”

This is a Magpies side that seemed headed for a rebuild before McRae took the coaching reins in 2022 after it slid badly down the ladder the year prior. You have to wonder how much their instant — and in many ways unexpected — rebound shifted the strategy.

The 2020 National draft Collingwood invested heavily in hasn’t aged well given only Fin Macrae, Reef McInnes and Beau McCreery remain from of the club’s six selections (which included Ollie Henry).

Since then, the Pies have had only one top 18 pick — Nick Daicos — and their recent drafts prior to 2020 haven’t produced many stars.

McRae has typically gone with his veterans and only given a short leash to young players when they’ve come into the side.

And so Justin Leppitsch taking over list management and longtime recruiting manager Derek Hine departing this off-season as part of an off-field shake up is a sign the simply lost faith in the previous drafting regime.

You can’t play good young talent if you don’t have it, but that’s also on the club for trading away its access to it.

Of course, the draft isn’t the only way to get talent through the door, with more list building mechanism than ever before. The retooled Carts are great example against the grain of a traditional rebuild.

In a perfect world, the Pies this year will have more of a blend this year of their veterans and young players and give more opportunities to the likes of Macrae, Wil Parker, McInnes, Ed Allan, Tew Jiath and Harry Demattia.

The emergence of such names would not only help the club for the future, but also the now.

While it’s easy to see the Pies’ pathway back to contention behind their star-studded list, it’s another stacked pool of contenders this year.

Brisbane will go again. Sydney is still primed. GWS might be better placed than ever. Carlton has all the tools. Geelong and Port Adelaide always seem to get written off then prove their doubters wrong. And Hawthorn, Fremantle and Gold Coast are on the rise.

The black and white will hope this group has another run in it, for it’s a group very much on the clock.