For the first time since 2021, the Kansas City Chiefs will not be competing in the Super Bowl and while some contenders have emerged, this still feels like one of the more wide-open NFL seasons in recent memory.
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The Los Angeles Rams are widely considered the best team in football as it stands, and yet after last week’s overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks they are looking at a wildcard berth, which means starting the post-season on the road.
Meanwhile, their recent loss to the Carolina Panthers, who are far from a Super Bowl contender given the question marks over Bryce Young against the NFL’s elite defences, was further proof of just how unpredictable this season has been.
Of the teams that have already locked up a spot in the playoffs, it is easy to poke a hole in each one’s Super Bowl credentials.
The Rams just fired their special teams coordinator after a missed field goal and conceding a punt return touchdown against the Seahawks, while their run defence and secondary can also be suspect at times.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have an elite defence but major question marks on offence with an uninspiring play-caller and inconsistent play from Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
Then there are the Seahawks, the current top seed in the NFC, who have produced one of the most explosive and efficient offences in the NFL despite an underwhelming rushing attack while Sam Darnold is still prone to poor play when under pressure.
The Bears continue to prove their doubters wrong, but Caleb Williams hasn’t been quite consistent enough in his first year under new coach Ben Johnson to suggest they are ready to compete for a Super Bowl just yet.
Elsewhere, the 49ers are exceeding expectations given their injuries on both sides of the ball.
As for the AFC, the Broncos have one of the league’s best defences but Bo Nix is yet to prove himself in the post-season. The same is true for Drake Maye, who is having a breakout season and is an MVP candidate for a Patriots team that has benefited from a softer schedule.
Then there are the Jaguars, who are finally starting to put it all together with Trevor Lawrence showing why he was billed as a generational talent after working alongside new coach Liam Coen and with a reliable receiver in Jakobi Meyers.
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The Bills and Chargers, meanwhile, have two of the league’s best quarterbacks but Buffalo’s defence is suspect and the passing offence lacks a true weapon. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is beat-up on the offensive line.
All of this is to say it is hard to predict what the eventual Super Bowl match-up will be, which makes for an intriguing final two weeks of the regular season.
Here, foxsports.com.au has you covered with everything you need to know — from playoffs-clinching scenarios to which teams are in the best position to earn a high draft pick.
PLAYOFF PICTURE
Let’s start out with the teams who are still in the running to win the Super Bowl. Here is how things stand both in the NFC and AFC.
NFC (* = playoffs clinched)
1. *Seahawks (12-3) — NFC West leader
2. *Bears (11-4) — NFC North leader
3. *Eagles (10-5) — CLINCHED NFC EAST
4. Panthers (8-7) — NFC South leader
5. *49ers (11-4)
6. *Rams (11-4)
7. Packers (9-5-1)
Still alive
Lions (8-7)
Buccaneers (7-8)
Eliminated
Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Commanders, Cardinals, Giants, Cowboys
Where things stand
NFC East
The Eagles are locked into the playoffs as winners of the NFC East, with all three other teams in their division (Commanders, Cowboys, Giants) already eliminated.
NFC North
The Bears have an outside shot at claiming top seed in the NFC should they win both of their remaining games (@ San Francisco, vs Detroit), although that would obviously depend on other results. Otherwise, they require just one win to clinch their first NFC North title since 2018. At this stage, the likeliest outcome is Chicago plays Green Bay in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Packers need to win just once in the next two weeks to clinch a playoff berth. If the Lions lose one of their remaining two games against the Vikings and Bears, the Packers would also clinch. But if Green Bay loses against both Baltimore and Minnesota and Detroit wins both, the Packers would miss the playoffs entirely.
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NFC West
The Seahawks have the best record in the NFL and are locked into the playoffs, although where exactly they finish is to be determined. At the moment, they are first in the NFC and will stay as the top seed if they win their final two games. That would see them rewarded with a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That isn’t a sure thing though as the two teams in their division, the Rams and 49ers, are just one game behind. That means both the Rams or 49ers could clinch top spot should Seattle lost either of its final two games against Carolina and San Francisco. Both the 49ers and Rams at worst could slip to the seventh seed, but are more likely to both earn wildcard berths as either the fifth or sixth seed. Los Angeles has the easier schedule (@ Atlanta, vs Arizona), with San Francisco hosting Chicago and Seattle.
NFC South
After their win last week against the Buccaneers, the Panthers control their own destiny and will clinch a playoff berth with a victory against Tampa Bay in Week 18. Otherwise, if they lose, Carolina could slip out of the playoffs entirely with a defeat against Seattle. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, needs to win both of its games against the Dolphins and Panthers to secure a playoff berth.
AFC (* = playoffs clinched)
1. *Broncos (12-3) — AFC West leader
2. *Patriots (12-3) — AFC East leader
3. *Jaguars (11-4) — AFC South leader
4. Steelers (9-6) — AFC North leader
5. *Chargers (11-4)
6. *Bills (11-4)
7. Texans (10-5)
Still alive
Colts (8-7)
Ravens (7-8)
Eliminated
Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, Jets, Browns, Raiders, Titans
AFC East
The Patriots are in the box seat to clinch the AFC East, with very winnable games against the Jets and Dolphins to close out the year. Should they win both of those, they are locked in at the top of the division. Otherwise, the Bills are looming close behind with a tough game against the Eagles this week followed by the lowly Jets. Assuming Buffalo wins against New York, the Bills will likely finish with the sixth seed. At worst, they will drop to seventh with losses in both games. Should the Patriots drop both games, they’d fall to the sixth seed at worst but could still win the division even if they lose one of their final two fixtures.
AFC North
With a two-game lead over the Ravens and a win over Baltimore already, it would require a disastrous finish for the Steelers to not lock up top spot in the AFC North. They require just one win from two games against the Browns and Ravens to close out the year. Even if they lose one, the Ravens need to beat both the Packers and then the Steelers to be any hope while also requiring Pittsburgh to lose to Cleveland this week.
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AFC West
Even after last week’s loss to the Jaguars, the Broncos hold the top seed in the AFC and will own that spot if they win both their remaining games against the Chiefs and Chargers. If the Patriots, Chargers, Jaguars and Bills all lose this week the Broncos also can clinch top seed with a win. A loss this week would put that in jeopardy, but Denver would still be able to seal top spot in the AFC West with a Week 18 win against the Chargers. At worst, if the Broncos were to drop both games to close out the year, they would likely be the No.6 seed. Meanwhile, the Chargers have a very unlikely path to top spot in the AFC given they would need other teams to drop very winnable games and require Denver to lose both games to end the year to win the AFC West. Otherwise, a wildcard berth and road trip to start the playoffs looms large.
AFC South
The Jaguars are favourites to win the division and would do so this week if they beat the Colts and the Texans lose to the Chargers. If Jacksonville wins its final two games, it is also a chance of claiming top seed in the AFC. Both games (Indianapolis, Tennessee) are absolutely winnable, so the Jags could make a late push. One loss would likely push the Jaguars to the third seed, while if they drop both that would likely mean the seventh seed. As for the Texans, they aren’t locked into the playoffs just yet but it’s highly unlikely they’ll miss out. That would require Houston losing both games against L.A. and Indianapolis along with the Colts winning both along with a ‘strength of victory’ tiebreaker. The more realistic scenario is that the Texans clinch a playoff berth this weekend with a win or Colts loss. With that in mind, the Colts’ playoff hopes hang by a thread after their latest loss to the 49ers. It is an unfortunate end to a season that promised so much and has fallen apart after the Daniel Jones injury.
Playoff matchups as things stand
AFC
(7) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots
(6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Wild-card round bye: (1) Denver Broncos
NFC
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Chicago Bears
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (3) Philadelphia Eagles
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Carolina Panthers
Wild-card round bye: (1) Seattle Seahawks
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER TEAMS?
Well, for those with the worst records in the league this is when players start popping up on the injury report out of nowhere like Raiders superstar tight end Brock Bowers did on Thursday.
Now, Bowers had been sidelined by a knee injury earlier in the year but he ran a route on nearly all of Geno Smith’s dropbacks last week and hardly looked limited in the loss to the Texans.
Yet, the Raiders have decided to give him an early rest ahead of their crucial Week 17 matchup with the Giants.
It is crucial because both teams currently sit at 2-13, tied for the worst record in the NFL and so this week’s game could well decide who holds the first overall pick in next year’s draft.
That is important every year but is particularly important for the 2026 draft because it seems like there will only be two top quarterback prospects in Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore.
In other words, that first overall pick will be particularly valuable.
Obviously for the Raiders, it would give them the chance to start over at the quarterback position after the Geno Smith experiment failed.
The Giants, on the other hand, already seem to have a potential long-term answer at the position in Jaxson Dart but would be able to trade back with a quarterback-needy team and recoup more draft capital to help their rebuild.
Although reporters asked star Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby about the first overall pick being on the line this week and his response was everything you would expect from one of the most competitive players in the league.
“Yeah, I don’t give a sh** about the pick,” he said.
“I don’t play for that. My job is to be the best defensive end in the world.”
Beyond them, the Browns, Jets, Titans and Cardinals all have a 3-12 record and all of those teams outside of Tennessee have major question marks at quarterback, so they too would be incentivised to drop games and rise further up the draft board.
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