“Who knows mate.”
That was Clayton Oliver’s take on his availability for Melbourne’s clash with Hawthorn this weekend, after been doorstopped at club training on Tuesday morning.
But while questions over whether the 27-year-old will line up at the MCG this Saturday remain unanswered as he works on his wellbeing, it’s the broader uncertainty around his future at the Demons that continues to stir public interest.
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Because if Oliver is to play anywhere other than Melbourne next year, it would take one of the most intricate, high-stakes trades the modern game has ever seen — and right now, that looks almost unworkable.
Oliver is less than three years into a lucrative seven-year extension signed in June 2022, tying him to Melbourne until the end of 2030. That deal, reportedly worth close to $1 million per season, has yet again become a major point of contention as speculation around his long-term future resurfaces.
Oliver the missing piece for the Cats? | 01:43
A potential move to Geelong last year was heavily publicised, as was an alleged mega offer from Adelaide back in 2023. It left Oliver to be told by Melbourne he was ‘on the trade table’ at the back end of 2024, after not performing to his usually-lofty standards by his own admission.
With the three-time All-Australian having temporarily stepped away from senior selection, conversations around his long-term standing at the Demons are again gathering momentum.
Oliver’s worth in 2030 could reportedly be worth as much as $1.7 million in the last year of his contract. It is a sum that looms as a significant hurdle for any club to jump over, let alone Geelong, whose list management strategy has rarely revolved around large salaries.
The Cats have rarely splashed big money on individual players — Patrick Dangerfield’s arrival in 2016 and Jeremy Cameron’s at the end of 2020 the two notable exceptions.
That salary — and Geelong’s typical caution with big-money deals — is the central roadblock.
For the Cats to land the inside bull, they would need to make even further cuts to the wages of several players already on contracts below their market value. Alternatively, they would have to rely on the Demons continuing to subsidise a portion of Oliver’s wage post-departure — an arrangement that, while uncommon, has precedent in modern footy.
So, while the latter solution might sound easy enough for the Cats to strike a deal with, it will be incredibly difficult (to say the least) for Melbourne to come to terms with and accept.
If a trade were to happen, it would almost certainly have to involve a multi-club deal or future picks; particularly if the Demons were set in stone on not carrying too much of his salary burden. For Geelong, the prospect of pairing Oliver with Max Holmes and new star recruit Bailey Smith, you would think, is still very enticing.
As the ladder stands heading into Round 9, the Cats hold Picks 12, 30, 48 and 66. It would be wishful thinking to say that draft hand alone is enough for a trade to go through — and that’s before taking into account the value of his playing contract.
So ahead of Round 9, there appears to be no genuine rival suitor for Oliver.
“I think he’s playing at Melbourne (in 2026),” ex-teammate and four-time premiership player Jordan Lewis told Fox Footy’s On The Couch on Monday night.
“I would think, for another club to take him, a half-a-million-dollar pay-cut — at least, per year.
“To say it in simple terms like that, I think it’s inevitable that he stays at Melbourne, and I don’t know what they need to work through to make sure that he’s happy and healthy in that environment, but I just think it would be too difficult to go somewhere else.”
Would Oliver take a big pay cut to walk? | 02:05
Melbourne have remained publicly supportive of Oliver’s growth after concerns with his off-field behaviour, but the writing may already be on the wall. The club was open to offers last year, and may well be again — despite the public narrative that they expect him to be a Demon for life.
“I expect him to be (at the club next year),” teammate Jack Viney declared on Tuesday. “He’s a terrific teammate, I don’t expect not to be otherwise.”
Despite that support, there’s also a risk in not trading Oliver and retaining him.
After a strong pre-season, Oliver’s output this season on the surface looks sound, averaging 27.6 disposals, 14.4 contested possessions, 7.0 clearances, 5.3 tackles and 4.9 score involvements.
But according to Champion Data’s Player ratings system, he’s the 211th-ranked player in the competition — a light improvement on last year (244th) but still a far cry from his brilliant stint between 2018 and 2022 where he was among the top 30 players in four of out five seasons — and in the top 10 twice. He’s polled just one vote in AFL Coaches’ Association Champion Player of the Year so far this year — an award he won back-to-back in 2021 and 2022.
Considering he’s still only 27, there’s still every chance Oliver can find that blistering form that made him one of the most dynamic inside midfielders in the competition. But would he be more likely to reach those heights at another club in a fresh environment, rather than at Melbourne considering the array of recent issues?
Keeping Oliver, too, would swallow up a decent portion of the Demons’ salary cap. They already have Christian Petracca (2029) and Jacob Van Rooyen (2029) on long-term deals, veterans Jack Viney (2028) and Max Gawn (2027) both still have several years left and first-round draftees Caleb Windsor (2028) and Koltyn Tholstrup (2028) have already extended their deals. And then there’s fellow first-round picks Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay (both 2027), who automatically signed three-year contracts last year.
The Demons would love to pick in-form star Kysaiah Pickett, who’s contracted to the club until at least the end of 2027 but has been heavily linked to an interstate move at season’s end. Whether the Demons would be prepared to keep paying a portion of Pickett’s salary in exchange for more top-end picks — or get the cash off their books and take a later draft compensation — remains unclear.
Either way, retaining Oliver could require a bit of a Dees cap juggling act.
Speaking on Fox Footy’s AFL 360 on Tuesday night, Melbourne great Garry Lyon suggested how the Demons can best approach what is quickly becoming a truly unique ‘trade’ timeline.
“I respect the call they made last week (to not play Oliver). It seemed to speak to a bit of maturity between both club, and player, that they’ve come together more meaningly than they have in the past,” he said.
Lyon added: “My position’s always been keep your superstars … but I do acknowledge that this is now at a really delicate stage.
“What they need to do is to continue in this vein of being open, honest and transparent — totally. Cards on table. No ‘I’ll go make a few calls on your behalf’, and no whipping down to Geelong behind your back.
“I think there’s a really interesting month (or two) ahead.”
While there is no suggestion that a move is imminent, the relationship between Oliver and the club remains under close watch. The idea of a parting post-2025 is, again, no longer far-fetched.
The risk factor for any suitor, Geelong or otherwise, is significant. Not just in salary, but in stability. Would Oliver thrive in a new environment, or would a move only deepen the challenges he’s currently working through?
The Cats have a long-standing history under Chris Scott of being able to bring out the best of all types of characters and personalities. Right now, the club — and by extension, the competition — are embracing Bailey Smith as much as any player in recent memory.
An Oliver storyline may feel familiar, but the speculation has been reignited. And if he is to walk, it won’t be simple. It would demand a trade deal so layered — financially, personally and structurally — that it could well be coined as unprecedented.
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