AFL stats gurus’ clear call on Brownlow race — and the $67 outsider who could come close

Normally, polling the most votes in Brownlow history would win you the medal.

But last year’s Brownlow was not normal.

Despite polling what would’ve been a record-setting 38 votes, Nick Daicos did not win the 2024 count, because Patrick Cripps shattered the record with 45.

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It wasn’t a shock that Cripps won – he was the equal-favourite with Daicos going into the night – but just a shock that both men polled so well.

So is this a permanent change? And what do the numbers say going into the 2025 count?

Does the Brownlow favourite usually win?

2025: Favourite Nick Daicos ($2.50)

2024: Winner Patrick Cripps ($2.50), joint-favourite with Nick Daicos

2023: Winner Lachie Neale ($13), favourites Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli ($2.75)

2022: Winner Patrick Cripps ($5.50), favourite Lachie Neale ($3)

2021: Winner and favourite Ollie Wines ($3.20)

2020: Winner and favourite Lachie Neale ($1.20)

2019: Winner Nat Fyfe ($7), favourite Patrick Dangerfield ($2.40)

2018: Winner and favourite Tom Mitchell ($1.50)

2017: Winner and favourite Dustin Martin ($1.05)

2016: Winner and favourite Patrick Dangerfield ($1.16)

2015: Winner and favourite Nat Fyfe ($2)

2014: Winner Matt Priddis ($17), favourite Joel Selwood ($2.50)

2013: Winner and favourite Gary Ablett ($1.90)

2012: Winner Jobe Watson* ($5.50), favourite Gary Ablett ($4)

2011: Winner Dane Swan ($11), favourite Chris Judd ($1.90)

2010: Winner Chris Judd ($17), favourite Dane Swan ($2.25)

The favourite has won eight of the last 15 Brownlows

Below, Foxfooty.com.au breaks down who the stats say will claim Charlie.

All odds via Pointsbet and accurate as of 6am September 22.

MORE BROWNLOW MEDAL

ULTIMATE GUIDE: Everything you need to know about Brownlow Medal night

ULTIMATE CHEAT SHEET: All eight contenders, every game they played, every stat

FIVE-HORSE RACE BROKEN DOWN: Every favourite’s three-vote game predicted

WHO IS CHAMPION DATA TIPPING TO WIN THE BROWNLOW?

The statistical models, including Champion Data’s Brownlow Tracker, believe Nick Daicos is the clear favourite to claim Charlie in 2025.

Daicos is tipped for a whopping 34 votes, almost eight clear of second place.

A key factor in Champion Data’s numbers appears to be a successful track record of polling votes.

For example Matt Rowell is their second-favourite, after polling 25 votes last year – many more than gun teammate Noah Anderson (14) – which could suggest Rowell draws the umpires’ attention better than Anderson does.

Meanwhile Tom Green, listed as long as $67 by some bookmakers ($41 with Pointsbet), is a surprising fourth-favourite with the stats gurus’ model.

The Giants midfielder is a noted poller, finishing sixth with 27 votes last year (leading the club count), along with 16 votes the year before (second on the team behind Toby Greene).

Bailey Smith, second-favourite with bookmakers, ranks only sixth in Champion Data’s predictor though it is very close between him and third-ranked Jordan Dawson (less than two votes).

Champion Data’s Brownlow Tracker Top 10

1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood) – 34.22 Votes

2. Matt Rowell (Gold Coast Suns) – 26.47 Votes

3. Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) – 24.28 Votes

4. Tom Green (GWS Giants) – 23.11 Votes

5. Noah Anderson (Gold Coast Suns) – 23.04 Votes

6. Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) – 23.01 Votes

7. Caleb Serong (Fremantle) – 21.35 Votes

8. Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) – 21.21 Votes

9. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) – 21.04 Votes

10. Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) – 19.49 Votes

WHAT DO THE OTHER COMPUTER MODELS SAY?

The incredible Wheelo Ratings site has a massive database of statistical knowledge, including Brownlow predictions, with Nick Daicos the red-hot favourite on their numbers.

Daicos is rated an 87% chance to win the Brownlow, and could poll into the 40s, with 11 games where their model judged him as best-on-ground. He’s tipped for 35.1 votes but that’s just the average projection.

The only other contenders given a better than five per cent chance are Noah Anderson (9.2% to win, projected 28.8 votes) and Jordan Dawson (5.2% to win, projected 27.2 votes).

Daicos looks likely to have the medal effectively clinched after Round 20, when he’s projected to be on 31.5 votes, ahead of Anderson (23.2), Caleb Serong (21.7) and Dawson (21.1).

Serong appears to be the Wheelo model’s best roughie tip – he’s $51 with Pointsbet – with the Dockers gun basically tipped to tie with Matt Rowell and Bailey Smith on 25 votes, though the latter two have a higher upside.

When asking his model to give out 3-2-1 votes (rather than the more conservative averages), site operator Andrew Whelan projected Daicos to receive 39 votes, ahead of Anderson on 35, Smith on 32, and Dawson on 31.

See his full projections including an excellent, free guide to the count here.

THE FOUR-UMPIRE THEORY

While it’s a very small sample size, there is evidence to suggest the more umpires there are on the field, the more attention the best players receive.

The excellent Footy A2Z YouTube channel posted a video about Brownlow vote inflation on Sunday, pointing out that there’s been a rise in votes received by the winner as the number of umpires on the field has risen.

With two umpires between 1976-1993, the average Brownlow winner polled one vote per game.

This increased to 1.29 votes per game with three umpires, between 1994-2022, and in the two seasons with four field umpires, winners have averaged 1.65 votes per game.

The video theorises that with more umpires, when determining their 3-2-1 for each game, it’s easier for them to find a consensus on the known best players.

The full video is well worth watching, with several other theories raised, including the fact that the team that polls the most overall votes hasn’t provided the actual Brownlow winner since 2011 (Dane Swan).

This points to the idea that winning the Brownlow is much harder with multiple star teammates taking votes off of you, boosting the chances of Daicos and arguably Dawson.

THE MOST USEFUL STAT TO PREDICT THE BROWNLOW IS…

Coaches’ votes, according to data scientist @crow_data_sigh (aka Liam).

Between 2012 and 2023, coaches’ votes were the stat with the strongest link to Brownlow votes – which makes sense given they’re both given out by close observers who are trying to pick the best-on-ground.

Players who poll 10 coaches votes poll three Brownlow votes a little over two thirds of the time (67.12%), and poll at least one vote just over 90% of the time.

And in contrast, some 1.01% of players who polled a Brownlow vote did not receive a coaches vote in that game.

Coaches votes received – Chances of polling any Brownlow votes in that game

10 – 90.29%

9 – 81.69%

8 – 72.52%

7 – 61.43%

6 – 51.53%

5 – 42.10%

4 – 31.57%

3 – 22.84%

2 – 16.79%

1 – 11.10%

0 – 1.01%

In 2012 to 2023 home and away seasons, stats sourced from @crow_data_sigh

Last year, Nick Daicos won the coaches’ award with Patrick Cripps close behind in second.

But Daicos didn’t win the award in 2025 – it went to Gold Coast’s Noah Anderson and Geelong’s Bailey Smith. That’s a big tick in their column.

And it’s worth point out that Matt Rowell finished third, with Daicos fourth, which suggests both Anderson and Rowell could poll well without taking votes off each other.

CLUB-BY-CLUB BROWNLOW FAVOURITES

via Champion Data’s Brownlow Tracker

Adelaide Crows: Jordan Dawson 24.28 votes, ahead of Izak Rankine 10.63

Team favourite (without Dawson): Rankine $1.30

Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft 18.66 votes, ahead of Hugh McCluggage 17.67 and Lachie Neale 17.40

Team favourite: McCluggage $1.20

Carlton: Patrick Cripps 18.09 votes, ahead of George Hewett 12.11

Team favourite: Hewett $1.50

Collingwood: Nick Daicos 34.22 votes, ahead of Jamie Elliott 9.18

Team favourite (without Daicos): Josh Daicos $2.25

Essendon: Zach Merrett 12.12 votes, ahead of Nic Martin 8.12

Team favourite: Merrett $1.03

Fremantle: Caleb Serong 21.35 votes, ahead of Andrew Brayshaw 19.41

Team favourite: Serong $1.25

Geelong: Bailey Smith 23.01 votes, ahead of Jeremy Cameron 21.21

Team favourite: Smith $1.05

Gold Coast Suns: Matt Rowell 26.47 votes, ahead of Noah Anderson 23.04

Team favourite: Anderson $1.50

GWS Giants: Tom Green 23.11 votes, ahead of Finn Callaghan 16.26

Team favourite: Green $1.30

Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe 19.14 votes, ahead of Jack Gunston 9.85

Team favourite: Newcombe $1.20

Melbourne: Max Gawn 15.37 votes, ahead of Christian Petracca 10.38

Team favourite: Gawn $1.05

North Melbourne: Luke Davies-Uniacke 12.02 votes, ahead of Harry Sheezel 10.18

Team favourite: Tristan Xerri $1.40

Port Adelaide: Zak Butters 15.95 votes, ahead of Connor Rozee 13.74

Team favourite: Butters $1.05

Richmond: Tim Taranto 11.84 votes, ahead of Jacob Hopper 6.20

Team favourite: Taranto $1.03

St Kilda: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 13.97 votes, ahead of Jack Sinclair 10.17

Team favourite (without Wanganeen-Milera): Sinclair $1.55

Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney 15.36 votes, ahead of Brodie Grundy 11.54 and Chad Warner 11.21

Team favourite: Heeney $1.25

West Coast Eagles: Harley Reid 4.27 votes, ahead of Tim Kelly 1.21

Team favourite: Reid $4

Western Bulldogs: Marcus Bontempelli 21.04 votes, ahead of Tom Liberatore 10.42

Team favourite: Bontempelli $1.30