West Coast’s sorry season hit a brutal low point, with a horrendous loss creating dark conversations off the field.
Plus the flaw holding Melbourne back from glory, St Kilda getting complacent and much more.
The big issues from Round 15 of the 2023 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!
BLOODS BATH! Eagles worst ever loss | 02:46
‘I’D BE MAKING NOISE’: BRUTAL DRAFT SCENARIO FACING EAGLES AS ‘DISTORTED’ SEASON LOOMS
Significant, club-shaping calls now loom at the Eagles. On the coach, on some of the disheartened players on the list and, just as crucially, on their inevitably juicy first-round draft pick.
If you had any uncertainty around whether West Coast’s finishing position at season’s end prior to Saturday’s club-record 171-point loss to Sydney – its fourth loss by over 100 points this season – you were left with no doubts by the full-time siren.
The Eagles’ percentage dipped from an already paltry 51.4 to 47.3. As pointed out by foxfooty.com.au colleague Max Laughton, West Coast is currently the fifth-worst team in VFL/AFL history, based on percentage 15 rounds or deeper into a season, with the 2012 Giants (41.2%) the worst.
The worst end-of-season percentage in a 22-plus game season remains the Giants in 2012 (46.2%). That was when the average age of the Giants’ list – which included 27 new AFL players – was 21.3 years and the average games played per player was 24.4.
The fact the Eagles this year have the seventh-most experienced and 10th-oldest list in the competition shows you just how dire the situation is.
“I do get the injury side of things, because they’ve had a couple of years where they’ve had just disasters … But ultimately, they’ve picked the list. They’ve picked their squad so it’s on them,” Bulldogs legend Brad Johnson told Fox Footy.
While a 24-round draw in an 18-team competition means the fixture will never be truly equal, the Eagles’ sub-AFL standard output “distorts the competition”, according to Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy, for the rest of the season.
Beyond that, though, is where the Eagles’ focus will lie.
Coach Adam Simpson, following the 122-point loss to Adelaide a fortnight ago, assured frustrated supporters his club had a clear plan to regenerate the playing list via upcoming national drafts, declaring: “We‘re going to transition the list pretty quickly, it’s going to be one of the youngest lists in the comp in a year or so. We want to get some picks at the top end if we can.”
Firstly, let’s just put to bed any suggestions West Coast this year deserves a priority pick.
Under no circumstances should a club as financially strong and recently successful – they won a premiership in 2018, lost an elimination final in 2020 and were in the top eight for 21 of 23 rounds in 2021 – as the Eagles receive AFL assistance. As dual All-Australian Kane Cornes has persistently pointed out, the club’s on-field woes derive from an “arrogant” list management strategy, with the club handing out questionable long-term contract extensions and trading out of three consecutive drafts.
But with West Coast surely destined for this year’s wooden spoon, the prospect of holding Pick 1 now looms, which would give the club access to, what it believes, the best and most talented young player in the country.
Most in the recruiting and talent landscape believe that’s Bendigo Pioneers’ Harley Reid – a white-hot, powerful prospect who’s drawn comparisons to Richmond superstar Dustin Martin yet has better overhead marking capabilities.
But Cornes believes trying to convince Reid to stay long-term at West Coast would be an almighty challenge.
“The other concern for them is that no one is going to want to play for this club, because it is the worst that we’ve seen,” Cornes told Channel 9’s The Sunday Footy Show.
“If I’m Harley Reid, who is the top prospect in the draft, I would not want to be going there. I’d be having real concerns if I was him or his family. I’d be saying: ‘You can draft me but after two years I’m going home.”
“They tell us it’s getting worse and they’re going to get younger – and the prospect of that could shunt his career for five or six years. I’d be making noise about not wanting to go there.”
Fellow panellist Damian Barrett pointed out that was “draft tampering”, but Cornes responded: “Many players have done it before.”
West Coast Eagles Press Conference | 05:13
An alternative to holding Pick 1 would be to ‘split’ their top pick and acquire multiple early selections to help them with their rebuild. And the fact there’s strong WA-based talent in this year’s draft pool – headlined by Claremont utility Daniel Curtin, Subiaco star Koltyn Tholstrup, Swan Districts winger Riley Hardeman and Peel Thunder duo Mitch Edwards and Clay Hall – would make that an appealing option.
Asked if the Eagles should split Pick 1, dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna told Fox Footy: “It’s a good debate. I think they need to be open to it, depending on what the other picks are in return, because they need a multitude of talent coming through this draft.
“If it ends up being three picks inside 10, whether it’s a couple this year and an extra one next year, they have to be open to it.
“We generally see the No. 1 player in the draft doesn’t necessarily end up being the best player from that draft pool, so it is something to consider and see if they can get more numbers through the door and build together, get a group of eight to 10 of these high-end young talent to build that next premiership wave.”
Healy said the Eagles could turn their fortunes around – obviously not in a hurry – but said it’d never been more crucial for them to “make good decisions at the draft”.
“Whether they go for one player or two or three players at the end of this year, they’ve just got to make sure they nail those particular people and they become long-term 200-game players. And it’s got to be the same the next year and the year after. Then they can go about their business,” he told Fox Footy.
“Just to bring some reality back to this to give some sort of perspective to where the Eagles are at. We’re talking about a loss (against Sydney) to similar margins to the ones they had in 1987. Well they won a flag in 1992.
“I know the list build scenario is a bit different now to what it was back then, but if you get the decisions right, you can do wonderful things in the space of three to five years.”
SAINTS GREAT SAVAGES ‘NEAR ENOUGH IS GOOD ENOUGH’ CLUB
St Kilda great Nathan Bourke says the club needs to embrace a “ruthless” mindset and demand it’s finals or bust in season 2023.
Speaking on ABC Sport, Bourke lamented the club’s “near enough is good enough” attitude.
“It’s there – you can’t deny it,” he said.
“If you’re a St Kilda person, it’s there at different stages. Near enough is good enough.
“Are we happy with sitting in finals at this stage of the year?”
But Bourke said the club’s decision to sack coach Brett Ratten – just months after re-signing him to a two-year deal – was a sign that the ruthlessness was emerging.
“The president and the board alluded to it last year when they made the change of Brett Ratten that near enough is not good enough,” he said.
“We need to have a more ruthless countenance about us in everything we do – that’s choosing coaches, the way we play the game.
“If we’re going to continue that ruthlessness, it has to be ‘hey, we should make the finals this year and if we don’t, well then it’s a darn sight not good enough’.”
The Saints were sitting inside the top three at the end of Round 8 but have now lost three of their past four games.
They were 8-4 this year – eerily similar to the 8-3 they enjoyed to start last year under Ratten.
But the club will be hoping to avoid a horror fade out like last year, where they then dropped to 3-8 for the second half of 2022 to miss finals.
Lions tame Saints to remain in top 4 | 02:32
But coach Ross Lyon says it’s comparing “apples and oranges” when looking at the two midway marks of the year.
“I don’t know if this is appropriate. Sometimes people look for conspiracy where there’s just stupidity or, in this case, poor form,” Lyon said.
“I don’t think you can compare it. Our first half of the year we did it without key personnel, we got Max (King) back (recently) and we did it with a bunch of kids that we’ve still got (in the senior team).
“I understand the narrative and there’s no judgment for me in it, but I think it’s apples and oranges.”
DEES FORWARD LINE ‘NOT WINNING A PRELIM’ AS GREAT DELIVERS REALITY CHECK
Melbourne’s forward line is “on life support” and the current mix “is not winning a prelim final,” according to North Melbourne champion David King.
The Demons’ forward half struggles continued in Thursday night’s loss to Geelong, held to a score of just 63 points following totals of 66 against Collingwood, 61 against Carlton, 72 against Fremantle and 76 against Port Adelaide.
From Rounds 1 to 13, Simon Goodwin’s side ranked 16th in the competition in points for (68.8 per game), ranked 15th in scores per inside 50 percentage (40%), ranked 13th in points from turnover (40.5) and ranked 17th in goal accuracy percentage (35%).
It’s long been the key question mark of the Demons’ otherwise star-studded side including rotating between key forward targets Jacob van Rooyen, Ben Brown and Tom McDonald, the latter two of which aren’t currently in the side.
King held concerns that if the Dees can’t get their attack up and firing, it’d lead to the team’s downfall in 2023.
Deesaster: Have Demons lost their flare? | 02:45
“The wording from the coach will be: ‘We’re a contest and defence team.’ And that’s fine, we understand that and that’s probably what’s going to get you to the promise land if you are to get there,” he said on Fox Footy.
“But you can’t continue to be kicking 60-odd points a week. I look at their targets in the forward line (against Geelong) – Fritsch (8), (Kysaiah) Pickett, (Trent) Rivers, (Max) Gawn (all 2). (Brodie) Grundy they didn’t give an opportunity to.
“They’re on life support in the forward 50. That forward 50 as it sits right now is not winning a prelim final.
“They’ve got time to correct it, (but) I don’t know who the answer is, I don’t know if it’s Joel Smith. I don’t if Fritsch is better as the target (or if he’s better) as a secondary target or the crumber.”
The defeat to Geelong saw Melbourne’s spot in the top four become vulnerable ahead of games against GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane and Adelaide over the next month.
Geelong rise in fourth to down Dees | 03:06
Hawthorn great Jason Dunstall believes the Demons’ ball movement is also a major issue, urging them to play with more risk instead of being too defensively-minded.
“They’re only going to head in one direction if they keep scoring 60 points a week,” he said on Fox Footy.
“There’s too many long kicks. What about leading up? What about getting some separation and creating space?
“It’s like they want to get it in deep because that’s the better place to defend from. You’ve got to take a risk to make it pay off.”
Dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna concurred with Dunstall, saying he’s more critical Melbourne’s forward half method as opposed to its personnel.
As such, Montagna believes they can turn things around, saying he still has them among the key premiership contenders.
“I’m still bullish on Melbourne … I think they’re setting up the game too much defensively at the moment to protect them and not get scored against, as opposed to playing with a bit more flare (like) they had at the start of the year,” he told Fox Footy.
“I think it’s on Simon Goodwin to rediscover a bit more flare on offence, as much as it is personnel.
“I still think they can win the flag.”
Cameron in good spirits despite knock | 01:02
LIONS ‘NOT THERE YET’ AS DISTRUST CONTINUES, FORWARD LINE IN FOCUS
Brisbane’s win on Friday night may have entrenched them in the top four of the ladder, but failed to solidify their premiership bona-fides.
Despite the Lions recording an important 28 point win on the road against St Kilda, an AFL great has questioned whether or not Brisbane, particularly their forward line, has the ability to get the job done come September.
Since 2019, the Lions have been one of the most prolific home and away teams in the competition with an enviable 69-27 record.
Compared to the most recent premiers and contenders Geelong (68-28), Melbourne (56-1-39), Richmond (56-4-37), Port Adelaide (66-33) and Collingwood (57-1-38), the Lions hold sway over their rivals.
But despite the winning record in the regular season, the finals are where it has come unstuck for the Lions under Chris Fagan – twice going out in straight sets, with a modest 3-6 record in September.
Throw in the Lions horror record at the MCG, and it’s a combination that has led Geelong great Cameron Mooney to not put his full trust in Brisbane yet as a team that can win the premiership this year.
Mooney believes that only four teams can win the premiership in 2023 and despite sitting in third Mooney doesn’t “trust them yet in the big games”.
“When I look at who can win the premiership this year, for me its Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne and I think Geelong. They’re the four.” Mooney said on Fox Footy Live.
“Yes they’re (Brisbane) sitting in third, I don’t trust them yet in the big games.
“Home and away they’re always going to be a pretty good team but they’ve shown us over the years in finals they are not there yet.”
Brisbane Lions Press Conference | 10:06
Mooney cited the Lions forward line as one of the key areas that he doesn’t “trust just yet” with a recent reshuffle around the ground adding more questions than answers.
Eric Hipwood was the main focal point on Friday night kicking four goals, with Fagan opting against selecting free-agent recruit Jack Gunston in favour of a more dynamic, faster and unpredictable smaller forward line.
“Their forward line is one that I don’t trust just yet,” Mooney said.
“Eric Hipwood… he’s never kicked over 40 goals (in a season) as your main man. They’ve got (Joe) Daniher now playing more as that ruck-forward role so he’s going to take himself out of that forward line more often than not.
“So you’re really relying on Eric Hipwood now to kick you a winning score come finals time – has he got it in him? We’re going to find out.”
Triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown said “it will be challenging” for Gunston to get back into the senior side.
“It’s been difficult for Jack,” Brown said.
“New team, the system sort of doesn’t fit his style of game. Brisbane is more of a long kicking where he’s come from a more precise kicking style at Hawthorn.”
WHO SHOULD BE SWANS’ ‘PRIMARY TARGET’ THIS TRADE PERIOD?
During the final quarter of Sydney’s utter annihilation of West Coast, Fox Footy commentators Gerard Healy and Leigh Montagna, naturally, began to look more broadly at where both clubs sat, particularly from a list perspective.
While the duo discussed the possibility of West Coast splitting its top draft pick to help accelerate the club’s rebuild, they also assessed whether there were any chasms on the Swans’ list.
And for Montagna, the answer was clear.
With 32-year-old Dane Rampe midway through his 11th AFL season, uncertainty around the future of Paddy McCartin – who’s currently sidelined with concussion – and Lewis Melican struggling to cement his spot in the best 22, Montagna said the Swans should seriously consider making a play for an established key defender.
Sydney Swans Press Conference | 07:01
Helping their case is they already hold one first-round pick and two second-rounders in this year’s draft.
Here’s how Healy and Montagna’s discussion played out late in the final quarter.
Gerard Healy: If you’re in the market to recruit someone for Sydney Joey, what would your primary target be?
Leigh Montagna: A big key defender, no doubt, for the Swans. They just need another one. There’s a few on the market, isn’t there? There’s still talk of (Harry) Himmelberg, or (Ben) McKay … (Esava) Ratugolea.
GH: (Tom) Barrass even, some have suggested there might be (a chance).
LM: If they can get a big key defender – we know about the talent they’ve got through the midfield …
GH: Who’d be your No. 1 target? If they were all available and they all wanted to come and you could only take one, who would you take?
LM: If Barrass was available – he’s contacted – he’s the best of them. He’s one of the best in the competition.
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